Morning Market Analysis

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S&P 500 Futures (/ESZ0) Market Profile for Wednesday, 09/30/2020.

  • Value Area High – 3337.00
  • Point of Control – 3327.50
  • Value Area Low – 3320.75
  • Pivot Point – 3333.00

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Good Morning, the E-Mini S&P 500 as of this writing at around 7:45 am EST, would be opening Outside of Balance/Value & around Yesterday’s Low of 3316.50. Overnight inventory in my eyes is pretty much 76% net to the short side with futures currently down -19.00 points as of this writing in the now.

Things to note this morning, the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (/ESZ0) from yesterday was Bearish, but we are trading just below the weekly range, which isn’t a great place to get short; my plan is to wait for a pop above the range so I can sell into stops of the breakout buyers. The important clue will be where price is at the open, In Value or Outside of Value? I will be using Day Trade Setup Types 3 thru 6 as my guide at the open.

Going into today (after looking at price action from Micro Composite Volume Profile Chartbook), I believe levels that need to hold today for Buyer’s to stay in control are an Initial Support Level of 3300.25 ish & needing to hold/stay above 3270.50 ish level. For the Seller’s, I think if price is above 3270.50 ish going into today, not much chance for the Seller’s. “If Aggressive”, you’re looking for Buyer Failure (IF NOTICEABLE) at today’s Key Resistance Levels above on Team Day Trader’s “Trader Worksheet” to sell high. Otherwise, I would look for price to break below 3270.50 ish & hold a pullback before selling this market short. So, let’s recap, dips should be buy-able till price is below 3270.50 ish, below gets vulnerable & a chance for Seller’s to take back control.

Your focus should be on levels & where value develops. Levels to watch price action today are going to be the reaction around 3327.50 ish, & if price closes above 3337.00 or below 3300.25.

Don’t forget, **Sequence = Failure, into Strength, into Pullbacks, and back to retest the Highs or Lows. CONTEXT is extremely important. Do not trade any setup mechanically and expect to have good results. Always judge the strength of any directional move in terms of market internals, overall pattern, tempo, & where the current range sits in relation to prior areas of balance.

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